Circulation is falling. Ad revenue is drying up. Readers are flocking to the web. With all this and more hitting the print news business, you'd think publishers would be singing the blues.

Turns out that's simply not the case. A new survey by the Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute at the Missouri School of Journalism found that publishers of U.S. dailies remain optimistic about the future of newspapers - yes, newspapers, those things with black ink printed on grayish paper.

The survey, the largest of its kind, found that nearly two-thirds of responding publishers expressed optimism about the future of the newspaper industry. Forty percent were "somewhat optimistic," 25 percent identified themselves as "very optimistic" and 31 percent were neutral. Only 4 percent identified themselves as "not optimistic;" no one picked "not optimistic at all."

The survey was part of the RJI Publishers Confidence Index, a series of polls gauging opinions of newspaper publishers about the future of the business and their ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

More than 450 in-depth phone interviews were done with publishers and other execs. The poll covered one-third of U.S. dailies of various sizes.

Circulation size seemed to be correlated to the level of optimism. Although publishers from every circulation size were included in both the "very optimistic" and "somewhat optimistic" groups, 83 percent of those in the "very optimistic" category headed up papers with average weekday circulations below 50,000.

The biggest surprise? Even though publishers are ramping up efforts to develop new digital products, many are still counting on print to continue to play a significant role in future success.

Asked, "Do you ever envision a time when your organization will not publish a printed edition," a whopping 62 percent said "no." One-third said "yes," and 5 percent said "maybe." Publishers of smaller papers were less likely to envision a time without a printed edition.

Of those publishers who see a time when they will no longer print, 19 percent expect that to happen in less than 10 years; 46 percent estimated it would happen in 10-20 years; 14 percent expect it will not happen for at least 20 years.

When asked whether they'd considered eliminating a day of publication, as Advance Publications is doing with the New Orleans Times-Picayune and other papers, 77 percent said "no," 17 percent said "yes," and 5 percent said they already have.

The survey's results will no doubt come as a surprise. No doubt the digital media nerds, who would have us believe that newspapers are already on death's door, will attack the findings, saying either:

a) they're inaccurate, or

b) they reflect the views of a bunch of old fogey publishers who are out of step with the times.

But as I've written before, even in the age of digital media, most newspapers still get the lion's share of their revenue - as much as 90 percent in some cases - from printed display ads. Digital revenue hasn't come close to replacing print, primarily because most people ignore online ads.

In other words, until publishers find a revenue source to replace print, print isn't about to disappear anytime soon - despite what the digital nerds may say.

Does this mean things are peachy in print journalism? Obviously not. Circulation and ad revenue is falling, and that's a long-term trend that's not likely to change.

One solution? Website paywalls. Newspapers large and small are realizing that there's nothing to be gained by continuing to give away their content online. Publishers have reached the perfectly logical conclusion that if readers are flocking to the web, they'd better figure out a way to make money from their websites.

Indeed, papers ranging in size from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette to The New York Times are finding that paywalls haven't sent readers fleeing, as the digital nerds had predicted. Some papers have even found they can maintain their profitable print circulation by including a digital subscription with the price of a print subscription, as the Times has done.

Will newspapers still be around a quarter-century from now? Who can predict? All I know is there are still roughly 1,300 papers publishing in the U.S., and they're not all going to disappear anytime soon.

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