As the fight for votes is only getting more expensive, political tacticians are often looking for ways to turn out as many voters as possible. Some turn to scare tactics: "Republicans want you to choose between medicine or eating dog food!"  But an increasingly common strategy to turn out voters is to place an issue on a ballot that may compel a specific voter demographic to get out and vote when they otherwise might not.

Gun rights groups may wish to put a pro-gun measure on a ballot in a certain state, knowing that the number of passionately pro-gun voters likely outweighs anti-gun ones. Republicans may push such a measure hoping it would lead to those voters also casting votes for their preferred candidates. In 2014 - and look for a surge in 2016 - several states will be voting on issues ranging from minimum wage increases to the legalization of marijuana. Democrats might think that having these issues on the ballot could greatly help their candidates in tough races. In the case of marijuana legalization, this was often taken as a given. But as Republicans begin taking a more states-rights approach to governance, actively push liberty, and fight to reform the criminal justice system, the tactic may not be the silver bullet for Democrats it could have been just a few short years ago.

Florida - Amendment 2

In Florida, voters will be voting on a ballot measure that legalizes doctor-prescribed marijuana for medicinal purposes.

This measure would expand upon a law signed by Republican Governor Rick Scott who earlier in the year signed off on allowing low-tetrahydrocannabinol cannabis, which is often used to treat chronic seizures, often in children. The champion of the amendment is a close ally of former Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who just so happens to be running for Governor against Scott as a Democrat. Crist also, coincidentally, uses a version of the mega-trial lawyer's tagline on the campaign trail and in campaign ads. (Trial lawyer tagline: "For the People." Charlie Crist: "For you, the people. Charlie Crist on Rick Scott: "For the powerful few.") Consider all of this a coincidence if you like, but clearly the hope was to turn out younger, pro-pot Democratic voters who would run to support the first step in marijuana legalization and cast a ballot for the ho-hum Charlie Crist while they were at it.

But it doesn't seem to be turning out that way. A poll by Survey USA showed that Amendment 2 is looking like it will surpass the needed 60% mark required by law. Though every age group favors the Amendment, support is greatest among voters between 18-34. Though they support the passage of the Amendment by a hefty 40 points (60-28%), they are split between Scott and Crist at 41-39% in favor of the challenger. In 2012, Barack Obama barely won Florida, but he won 18-29 year-olds over Mitt Romney 66-32%. Those are the types of numbers Crist and friends were hoping to pull in from the younger demographic, and pushing medical marijuana was the means to get them out to vote. Though it may turn out some extra voters, it does not look like to have the desired carry-over into the gubernatorial election.

Alaska - Ballot Measure 2

In Alaska, the dynamics are quite different as Ballot Measure 2 goes well beyond Florida's modest limits allowing for doctor-prescribed medicinal purposes only.  Instead, the "initiative would legalize recreational use of marijuana for adults aged 21 and older and levy a tax of $50 per ounce of pot." The fate of the Alaskan measure is much tighter. The big race in Alaska is the US Senate battle between unlikely incumbent Mark Begich and Republican challenger Dan Sullivan. The general thinking remains the same. Younger voters are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates and for Marijuana, so putting Marijuana on the ballot helps the Democratic candidate. But support for Measure 2 is soft even among 18-29 year-olds who support the measure by just 48-39%. This is a far cry from the 40-point lead with the same age group in Florida. The same poll also gave Begich a small advantage (40-37%) over Sullivan in the targeted group, suggesting again that even turning out these voters would do little to move the race in favor of the Democrat.

Colorado in the Books

Some states have already used up their one free "get out the marijuana vote" card, such as Colorado in 2012. That year, Barack Obama was locked in a crucial re-election contest against Mitt Romney, whom he narrowly defeated 51-47%. Also on the ballot was Measure 64, which would amend the "Constitution to legalize possession of limited amounts of marijuana, with regulations," and it was passed by a larger 55-45%. Did having the measure help Obama turn out crucial voters? Possibly, but either way the issue will not help in this years tight Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republican challenger Cory Gardner. In 2016, there will likely be many states with marijuana ballot initiatives up for vote, but Florida, Alaska, Oregon, and Colorado will not be among them (assuming Florida doesn't go for outright decriminalization by then).

GOP Candidate's Changing Views on Marijuana

Republicans are, like the public in general, becoming more open to marijuana use, especially in regards to medicinal purposes. Florida Republicans are split on the issue and nationwide polls have shown similar results. Conservative activist Michelle Malkin has written in favor of medical marijuana for years, and many conservatives, libertarians, and conservatarians have continued to make a pro-states argument regarding the issue. US Senator Rand Paul has been a leading advocate for the reform of drug laws that would end federal involvement in regulating the drug. In a battle between Paul and Hillary Clinton, is it a safe to say younger voters would certainly turn out for Hillary? Not really.

Certainly Republican voters and politicians remain more restrained in how far they would like to see the issue go. Medical marijuana and decriminalization is one issue, open usage is another. And voters tend to agree with a more restrained vision on marijuana use. In Colorado, though legalization remains favored by a 10-point margin, residents overwhelmingly support usage being restricted to private settings including households or members-only clubs. By greater than 2-1 margins, Coloradans say they don't think it should be allowed in bars, clubs, or entertainment venues.

If there was a window for marijuana to be a powerhouse voter-turnout gimmick, it has probably already closed. One reality is that to even have a chance at success at the ballot, an issue would have to be at least mainstream enough to have some substantial cross-party support in order to pass. So rather than a certain issue potentially appealing to one demographic, it actually might appeal to many. An issue once seen as supported by a small, target group, usually doesn't make statewide ballots until the idea is no longer small and targeted. And go too far off in the measure - notice Florida only going for medical marijuana - and you might actually risk turning out the opposite voter and helping the opposition.