Early Season College Football Conference Underdogs

There are certain conferences in college football that you know are going to be tough on a consistent basis. The SEC is obviously the first one that comes to mind, while the Big 10 and ACC also come to mind. The Pac 10 usually has a few strong teams each season, as does the Big East and Big 12.

Nearly every conference will have a couple of top-notch teams, but it's the remaining teams that make up the overall strength of the conference.

While a match-up between the two best teams in a pair of conferences is great for bragging rights, a contest between the two worst teams in the same two conferences would go just as far in determining which conference one was better.

The SEC is generally perceived as football's toughest conference because its middle-of-the-pack teams are usually decent clubs. They just happen to be a few notches behind the Alabamas and Floridas of the college football world.

One reason the top-notch teams are where they are at compared to the rest of the conference is that they are much deeper. They can afford to rotate players and keep people fresh and injuries don't usually have the same impact, as the top-notch teams can plug another player into the lineup and hardly miss a beat.

Therefore, it would make sense that the middle-of-the-pack teams and the bottom feeders of the conference standings will be a little bit stronger in the beginning of the year, before injuries and other factors come into play.

The results of the past five years seem to back up that notion, as well. Over the past five seasons, wagering on all conference underdogs in September would have produced a solid 200-136 record against the point spread. Hitting over 59% with such a large number of plays is a pretty impressive feat.

Generally, the stronger the conference, the better the underdogs performed.

September Conference Underdog Records

Atlantic Coast Conference 33-21
Big East Conference 8-2
Big 10 Conference 18-13
Big 12 Conference 9-3
Conference USA 22-10

Mid-American Conference 8-8
Mountain West Conference 14-11
Pac 10 Conference 15-21
Southeastern Conference 39-20
Sun Belt Conference 8-8
Western Athletic Conference 8-5

There were several pushes omitted from the records, but overall these teams were 200-136 against the number.

Several conferences really stand out, such as the success of Big 12, Big East and SEC conference underdogs.

On the other side, it's hard not to notice the Pac 10, which is the only conference below .500. While that 15-21 record is pretty dismal, Pac 10 underdogs in September were 5-1 last year after going a dismal 10-20 the first four years.

Other factors than team depth certainly come into play. Most teams usually will play just one conference game in September and it's easy to see the underdog being emotionally up for the game, since a lot more teams are optimistic about their season in September than they are in November.

Perhaps the favorite doesn't want to show all of its plays or formations, saving some things in reserve for when they meet the other conference powerhouse, but it's hard to ignore how well these teams have fared.

When teams start playing conference games in September give the underdog an extra hard look.